Team:British Columbia/Model2

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Team: British Columbia - 2011.igem.org

MODEL 2: Dynamics of Mountain Pine Beetle Populations in British Columbia

Modeling the mountain pine beetle epidemic using a probabilistic clustering approach



OBJECTIVE:
To predict the impact of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic on the lodgepole pinetree population in British Columbia (BC), we developed a mathematical model that describes the spread of the MPB population across BC from 1999-2010. We applied the model to simulate the spread of the Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) in the upcoming 10 years from 2011-2020 . Then, we used the model to predict key locations in BC where we may install the iSynthase “TrapBox” product to effectively control the MPB epidemic. Lastly, we propose a formula to estimate the cost required to implement a MPB control strategy.

Model Creators: Jacob Toth, Joe Ho, Samuel Wu

Model Advisors: Shing Zhan

Model Coder: Samuel Wu

Download model methodology

The Beetle's Strategy

Ubcigemmodel2comic2.jpg

The mountain pine beetle lives in symbiosis with the blue-stain fungus (which has the ability to break down monoterpenes). Their relationship allows the mountain pine beetle to avoid the toxic effects of the monoterpenes, while the blue-stain fungi is carried inside the tree where it can happily grow and colonize. Monoterpenes produced by trees deter away insect attack, but stressed trees produce low amounts of monoterpenes. Due to this, both the pine beetle and the fungi exploit the tree for their own benefits. The beetles lay their larvaes inside, while the blue-stain fungi grows inside the tree and provide a source of nutrient for the young larvaes. Once the larvaes grow out into adult beetles, they carry the blue-stain fungus and infects other trees. The trees die from this because the blue stain fungus blocks transport of water and nutrients.

Our Strategy

Ubcigemmodel2comic.jpg