Team:British Columbia/Model2

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MODEL 2: Dynamics of Mountain Pine Beetle Populations in British Columbia

Modeling the mountain pine beetle epidemic using a probabilistic clustering approach

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Modeling the mountain pine beetle epidemic using a probabilistic clustering approach

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OBJECTIVE: To predict the impact of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic on the lodgepole pinetree population in British Columbia (BC), we developed a mathematical model that describes the spread of the MPB population across BC from 1999-2010. We applied the model to simulate the spread of the Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) in the upcoming 10 years from 2010-2020 . Then, we used the model to predict key locations in BC where we may install the iSynthase “TrapBox” product to effectively control the MPB epidemic. Lastly, we propose a formula to estimate the cost required to implement a MPB control strategy.

</br> Model Creators: Jacob Toth, Joe Ho, Samuel Wu</br> Model Advisors: Shing Zhan </br> Model Coder: Samuel wu </br>

The Beetle's Strategy

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