Escherichia coli in X medium							
							
Data							
Hour	Colonies in Antibiotic-Free Medium	Colonies in Antibiotic-Present Medium	Ratio				
0	100	100	1				
12	100	100	1				
24	97	96	0.989690722				
36	68	65	0.955882353				
48	100	98	0.98				
60	100	99	0.99				
72	100	99	0.99				
							
							
Annotations							
Assumptions:							
"The initial inocutalion at t=0 is of first daughter cells, i.e. second generation"							
"Doubling time is of 40 minutes, conservative estimate for M9 glucose medium"							
There are no Gain-Of-Function mutations that generate phenotipe without plasmid							
"The Total count is given by the number of colonies in AB-free mediuim, i.e. the positive control"							
							
Legend:							
t	generations						
x	event: plasmid kept						
!x	event: plasmid NOT kept						
O(x)t	observance of x at time t						
P(x)t	compound probability of x at time t since t=0						
P(x)	probability of x for time t since time t-1						
							
							
P(x)							
t	Total	O(x)t	O(!x)t	P(x)t	P(x)		
1	100	100	0	1	1		
19	100	100	0	1	1		
37	97	96	1	0.989690722	0.999719964		
55	68	65	3	0.955882353	0.999179965		
73	100	98	2	0.98	0.999723289		
91	100	99	1	0.99	0.999889563		
109	100	99	1	0.99	0.999907799		
							
				P(x)	0.999774369		
				P(!x)	0.000225631